:Product: 19990709RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 190 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
IN A VARIETY OF SMALL ACTIVE REGIONS. REGION 8629 (N23W70) WAS THE
MOST ACTIVE AREA PRODUCING THE BULK OF THE OBSERVED FLARES. THIS NEW
EMERGING REGION IS LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THAT HAD BEEN
NUMBERED 8613 BUT HAD SIGNIFICANTLY DECAYED. REGIONS 8615 (S29W28),
8626 (S21W43), 8627 (S13E61), AND NEW REGION 8628 (N18E52) ALSO
PRODUCED SUBFLARES. REGION 8630 (S10W55) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ANY OF THE ACTIVE REGIONS MENTIONED IN PART IA. ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING C-CLASS ACTIVITY.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS FLARE IN REGION 8629.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 JUL 151
PREDICTED   10 JUL-12 JUL  152/154/154
90 DAY MEAN        09 JUL 150
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL  004/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 JUL-12 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01