:Product: 19990710RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 191 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8629 (N23W84) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C6/SF AT 09/2239UT. GROWTH IN
THIS ACTIVE REGION SEEMS TO BE SLOWING; HOWEVER, LIMB PROXIMITY
MAKES ANALYSIS UNCERTAIN. REGIONS 8615 (S31W40) AND 8627 (S12E47)
ALSO PRODUCED C-LEVEL FLARES. NONE OF THE REGIONS APPEAR
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPLEX.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IN REGIONS 8615, 8627, AND 8629. AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8629 BEFORE IT EXITS
THE VISIBLE DISK.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 JUL 156
PREDICTED   11 JUL-13 JUL  158/158/156
90 DAY MEAN        10 JUL 151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUL  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUL-13 JUL  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 JUL-13 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01