:Product: 19990711RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 192 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C3/1N
FROM REGION 8628 (N18E21) AT 11/0009UT.  THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED
BY MINOR RADIO, INCLUDING A TYPE II SWEEP.  REGION 8628 IS GROWING
SLOWLY AND SHOWING SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY.  NUMEROUS SUBFLARES
WERE ALSO OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 8626 (S20W70) AND 8615 (S30W55).
NEW REGION 8631 (N10E78) APPEARS TO BE THE RETURN OF REGION 8604
(N12 L-050).  REGION 8632 (S20W57) IS SLOWLY EMERGING.  ALSO OF NOTE
IS THE EXTENDED REGION 8627 (S14E33).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY FROM REGIONS 8615, 8626, 8627, AND
8628.  AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 JUL 153
PREDICTED   12 JUL-14 JUL  150/149/147
90 DAY MEAN        11 JUL 151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUL  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 JUL-14 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01