:Product: 19990712RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 193 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THERE ARE 12 SPOTTED REGIONS
ON THE DISK WITH ONLY SMALL C-CLASS FLARES BEING OBSERVED.  THE MOST
SPECTACULAR EVENT OF THE DAY WAS THE DISAPPEARANCE OF A LARGE
FILAMENT NEAR S33E60 EARLY IN THE UT DAY.  A CME OVER THE SOUTHEAST
LIMB OF THE SUN OBSERVED BY THE SOHO SPACECRAFT AROUND 0700UT
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.  A TYPE II SWEEP WAS
REPORTED AT 11/1840UT, HOWEVER, NO OPTICAL REPORTS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT.  TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED, REGION
8633 (N42E21) AND REGION 8634 (S18E69).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS.  THE
FIELD BECAME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOLLOWING A SUDDEN IMPULSE AT
12/0218UT (20 NT AT BOULDER).  THE FIELD IS CURRENTLY BACK AT QUIET
LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.  ANY
TERRESTRIAL IMPACT FROM TODAY'S DISAPPEARING FILAMENT OR THE SOLAR
SOURCE OF THE TYPE II IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL 16 JUL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 JUL 154
PREDICTED   13 JUL-15 JUL  149/147/145
90 DAY MEAN        12 JUL 151
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUL  002/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUL  013/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUL-15 JUL  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 JUL-15 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01