:Product: 19990713RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 194 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  THE LARGEST EVENT WAS AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED C2.9 AT 13/0546UT.  THERE ARE 12 SPOTTED
REGIONS ON THE DISK, MOST ARE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE, ALL
APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING.  THE FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N40E60 AND
EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST LIMB DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 13/0800UT AND
13/1800UT.  THIS EVENT WAS PROBABLY THE SOURCE OF THE CME OBSERVED
BY THE SOHO SPACECRAFT AROUND 13/1200UT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN GENERALLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  THERE IS A
FAIR CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONDITIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A RESULT OF
RECENT SOLAR EVENTS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL
CLASS M    25/20/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 JUL 144
PREDICTED   14 JUL-16 JUL  142/140/135
90 DAY MEAN        13 JUL 152
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 JUL  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 JUL  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 JUL-16 JUL  005/005-005/005-007/006
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 JUL-16 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01