:Product: 19990714RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 195 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW, NO C-CLASS EVENTS
WERE OBSERVED SINCE THE C2.9 AT 0522UT ON THE 13TH.  ALL REGIONS
APPEAR STABLE OR DECLINING AND THE SOLAR LIMBS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY
QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO VERY LOW.  ACTIVITY MAY START TO INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
FORMER ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO THE EAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND BECOMING SLIGHTLY
ACTIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 JUL 130
PREDICTED   15 JUL-17 JUL  130/125/120
90 DAY MEAN        14 JUL 152
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL  003/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL  005/005-007/007-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 JUL-17 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01