:Product: 19990715RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 196 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO TWO C-CLASS EVENTS.
REGIONS 8625 (S18W40), 8627 (S14W20), AND 8634 (S19E30) ALL PRODUCED
MINOR ACTIVITY. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WERE MOSTLY QUIET. ONE
NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED; 8635 (N42W64).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO VERY LOW. ACTIVITY MAY START TO
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS FORMER ACTIVE LONGITUDES RETURN TO
THE EAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED UNTIL 0900UT AND THEN WAS
QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 JUL 130
PREDICTED   16 JUL-18 JUL  130/140/145
90 DAY MEAN        15 JUL 152
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUL  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUL  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUL-18 JUL  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 JUL-18 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01