:Product: 19990716RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 197 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8635 (N44W79)
PRODUCED A C7/SF FLARE AT 16/0849UT AND AN M3/0N FLARE AT 16/1550UT.
THE LATTER EVENT ALSO PRODUCED MINOR RADIO ACTIVITY, INCLUDING A
TYPE II SWEEP. REGION 8627 (S14W34) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 16/1731UT.
EIT IMAGERY FROM THE SOHO SPACE CRAFT SHOWED A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE
REGION JUST STATING TO ROTATE ONTO THE NORTHEAST LIMB. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY BE RETURNING REGION 8598. THAT PRODUCED SEVERAL C AND
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE LAST ROTATION. THE REST OF THE DISK AND
LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE. ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM REGIONS
8627 AND 8635.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET UNTIL THE LAST DAY OF THE PERIOD WHEN
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 JUL-19 JUL
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 JUL 132
PREDICTED   17 JUL-19 JUL  140/145/150
90 DAY MEAN        16 JUL 152
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUL  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUL-19 JUL  005/007-005/007-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 JUL-19 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01