:Product: 19990717RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 198 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE TWO ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
8535 (N44W92) AND 8536 (N20E73). BOTH REGIONS PRODUCED SEVERAL
OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE DAY. REGION 8535 ALSO PRODUCED 2
C-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST WAS A C3/SF AT 17/1631UT. REGION 8536
WAS NUMBERED TODAY. IT APPEARS TO BE RETURNING REGION 8539. THAT
REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C AND M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE LAST
ROTATION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ALTHOUGH REGION 8535 WILL ROTATE OFF OF THE DISK THIS
PERIOD, REGION 8536 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE
PERIOD WITH POSSIBLE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 JUL-20 JUL
CLASS M    50/50/50
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 JUL 137
PREDICTED   18 JUL-20 JUL  150/155/160
90 DAY MEAN        17 JUL 152
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUL  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUL-20 JUL  005/007-005/007-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 JUL-20 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01