:Product: 19990718RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 199 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST ACTIVE REGION WAS 8636
(N20E60). THIS REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AS WELL
AS SEVERAL OPTICAL SUBFLARES. OPTICAL OBSERVATORIES REPORT NEAR
CONTINUOUS PLAGE FLUCTUATIONS AND POINT BRIGHTENING IN REGION 8636.
IT CURRENTLY HAS AN ESO, BETA-GAMMA SPOT CLASSIFICATION WITH 10
SPOTS. THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMBS WERE MOSTLY QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8636 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS AT ANY TIME.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH POSSIBLE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON
THE SECOND DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 JUL-21 JUL
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 JUL 138
PREDICTED   19 JUL-21 JUL  145/150/155
90 DAY MEAN        18 JUL 152
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUL  003/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUL-21 JUL  005/007-010/010-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 JUL-21 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/15
MINOR STORM           01/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01