:Product: 19990719RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 200 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH.  REGION 8636 (N20E52) PRODUCED
AN M5/2N FLARE AT 19/0846Z.  ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE WERE TYPE II
AND IV SWEEPS AS WELL AS A 140 SFU 10CM BURST.  THE TYPE II SPEED
WAS ESTIMATED AT 500 KM/S.  EARLIER AT 19/0215Z, REGION 8631
(N12W28) PRODUCED A C4 X-RAY EVENT ALSO WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND
IV SWEEPS.  NEW REGION 8639 (N38W14) WAS NUMBERED AND IS CURRENTLY A
BXO-BETA SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGION 8636 DISPLAYS AN INCREASE IN MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY AND HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AN M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD BECOMING
QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE LAST TWO DAYS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF A
FAINT FULL HALO CME OBSERVED BY SOHO/LASCO FROM REGION 8631 AT
19/0215Z.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 JUL-22 JUL
CLASS M    40/50/50
CLASS X    01/05/05
PROTON     01/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 JUL 141
PREDICTED   20 JUL-22 JUL  145/145/150
90 DAY MEAN        19 JUL 153
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUL  005/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUL  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUL-22 JUL  005/008-008/007-012/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 JUL-22 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/30
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/25/35
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01