:Product: 19990722RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 203 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED LONG DURATION C2 X-RAY EVENT OCCURRED FROM 21/2212Z TO
22/0013Z.  REGION 8636 (N21E12) EXHIBITED CONTINUED GROWTH AND HAS
MAINTAINED A BETA GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION.  THE REGION IS NOW A
CLASS F SUNSPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 45 SPOTS.  REGION 8639
(N38W50) ALSO EXHIBITED MINOR GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8643
(N21W62), CURRENTLY A BXO-BETA SPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 4
SPOTS, WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGION 8636 REMAINS VERY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AN
M-CLASS OR HIGHER EVENT.  REGION 8639 ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE 22/0300-0600Z
PERIOD.  THE INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAY BE RELATED TO THE
HALO CME EARLY ON 19 JULY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE
FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
CLASS M    60/50/50
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 JUL 153
PREDICTED   23 JUL-25 JUL  160/165/170
90 DAY MEAN        22 JUL 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL  024/023
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL  010/010-008/007-008/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 JUL-25 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01