:Product: 19990724RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 205 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME HIGH DUE TO THE OCCURRENCE OF
FIVE M-CLASS EVENTS. OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M2 EVENTS OCCURRED AT
24/1112Z AND 24/1133Z. NEW REGION 8645 (S26E69) ROTATED ONTO THE
DISK AND PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 23/2300Z, AN M1/1N AT 24/0404Z, AND A
LONG DURATION M3/SF AT 24/0756Z. WHILE STILL NOT FULLY VISIBLE, THIS
REGION SHOWED ITSELF AS A MODERATE SIZE D CLASS SUNSPOT GROUP. IT IS
VERY NEAR THE LOCATION OF OLD REGION 8611 THAT WAS ACTIVE LAST
ROTATION. REGION 8636 (N21W13) PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES.
OVERALL, THIS REGION WAS STABLE AND EXHIBITED MINOR MIXING OF
POLARITIES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
MODERATE LEVEL. M-CLASS EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM REGION
8645 PRIMARILY DUE TO PERSISTENCE AND THE HISTORY OF THIS AREA.
REGION 8636 IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ONLY ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF MAJOR FLARES FROM THIS REGION AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM REGION 8645.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
REMAINED ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL AND OCCASIONALLY EXCEEDED 500 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NO
SIGNIFICANT CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS WERE OBSERVED WITH THE RECENT
ACTIVITY ON THE DISK AND EAST LIMB. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF
AN ENERGETIC PROTON EVENT SHOULD REGION 8636 PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
CLASS M    90/90/90
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JUL 184
PREDICTED   25 JUL-27 JUL  186/189/190
90 DAY MEAN        24 JUL 156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUL  010/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUL  009/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUL-27 JUL  010/012-008/010-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JUL-27 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/05
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01