:Product: 19990726RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 207 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE LARGEST EVENTS OF THE
PERIOD WERE LOW LEVEL C-CLASS BURSTS. REGION 8636 (N21W41) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SUBFLARES, DECREASED SLIGHTLY IN SIZE, AND APPEARED TO ONCE
AGAIN SIMPLIFY MAGNETICALLY. REGION 8645 (S27E47) REMAINED
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE.  REGION 8639 (N38W99) PRODUCED FREQUENT
SURGING FROM BEHIND THE LIMB BUT PRODUCED NO DISCERNIBLE BURSTS.
POST EVENT ANALYSIS OF THE M2 FLARE GENERATED BY THIS REGION AT
25/1338Z INDICATED A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACCOMPANIED THE
FLARE. HOWEVER, IT WAS DETERMINED BY SOHO SCIENTISTS THAT THIS CME
WAS NOT EARTH DIRECTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. BOTH REGIONS 8636 AND 8645 ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
OCCASIONAL M-CLASS EVENTS. REGION 8636 COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED
X-CLASS EVENT BUT THAT LIKELIHOOD IS DECREASING AS THE REGION SLOWLY
DECAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 JUL-29 JUL
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 JUL 172
PREDICTED   27 JUL-29 JUL  172/172/174
90 DAY MEAN        26 JUL 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL  008/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL  008/007-010/012-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 JUL-29 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/15
MINOR STORM           05/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01