:Product: 19990727RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 208 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. A LONG DURATION C2 EVENT
WAS OBSERVED AT 27/0254Z AS A RESULT OF AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON
THE NE LIMB. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS AN M3/1B FROM
REGION 8636 (N21W54) AT 27/1405Z. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 8649 (S15E09), REGION 8650 (N17E75), AND REGION 8651
(N24E73).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION
8636.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
CLASS M    75/75/75
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 JUL 175
PREDICTED   28 JUL-30 JUL  175/170/170
90 DAY MEAN        27 JUL 159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUL  004/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL  008/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL  010/012-008/008-008/006
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 JUL-30 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01