:Product: 19990728RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 209 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8649 (S15W05)
PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 28/0201Z. THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE
IV SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST, AND A 450 SFU BURST AT 10CM. THIS REGION
ALSO PRODUCED A M2/1B AT 28/0814Z. REGION 8645 (S26E22) PRODUCED A
C7/1N AT 28/1812Z WITH A TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED
ESTIMATED AT 500 KM/S. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION
8652 (N17W37) AND REGION 8653 (N28W30).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT CONSIDERING
THE CURRENT REGIONS ON THE SUN.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JUL 198
PREDICTED   29 JUL-31 JUL  190/190/185
90 DAY MEAN        28 JUL 159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUL  006/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUL  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUL-31 JUL  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JUL-31 JUL
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01