:Product: 19990729RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Jul 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 210 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 JUL 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8651 (N24E49) PRODUCED
A VERY IMPULSIVE M5/1N FLARE AT 29/1936Z WITH SMALL CENTIMETRIC
BURSTS. THIS REGION EXHIBITED GROWTH IN BOTH WHITE LIGHT AND H-ALPHA
IMAGERY AND PLAGE COVERAGE WAS NEAR FLARE INTENSITY DURING THE
LATTER STAGES OF THE PERIOD. REGION 8645 (S24E10) PRODUCED AN M1/2N
FLARE AT 29/1656Z. THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP, COVERING
590 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA IN AN F-TYPE GROUP WITH
MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. REGION 8649 (S15W16) CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE FREQUENT SMALL FLARES BUT NO SUBSTANTIAL GROWTH WAS
OBSERVED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8645 AND 8651 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FURTHER M-CLASS
ACTIVITY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN X-CLASS EVENT. REGIONS 8647
(S18E11), 8649, AND 8636 (N20W82) HAVE SMALLER POTENTIAL FOR AN
M-CLASS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR DAY ONE.
OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS TWO AND THREE IN
RESPONSE TO THE M-CLASS/CME EVENTS IN REGION 8649 ON EARLY 28 JUL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     15/15/15
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 JUL 202
PREDICTED   30 JUL-01 AUG  200/190/180
90 DAY MEAN        29 JUL 160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUL  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUL  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUL-01 AUG  010/010-012/010-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 JUL-01 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/35/25
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/40/30
MINOR STORM           10/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/10/05