:Product: 19990801RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 213 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED
THIS PERIOD WITH THE LARGEST FROM REGION 8645 (S25W29) WHICH
PRODUCED A C9/SF AT 01/0645Z. THIS REGION IS AS AN F-TYPE GROUP AND
CONTINUES TO GROW IN SUNSPOT AREA WITH AN AVERAGE OF 43 SPOTS
REPORTED FOR THE DAY. REGION 8651 (N24E09) REMAINS AN E-TYPE GROUP
AND THE LARGEST REGION ON THE SOLAR DISK WITH AN AVERAGE OF 58
SPOTS. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS 8655 (N25E38) AND 8656
(N18E34).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT CONSIDERING
THE CURRENT REGIONS ON THE SUN.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. ACTIVE TO
MINOR STORM CONDITIONS PREVAILED THROUGH 01/0600Z THEN CHANGING TO
QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 AUG 216
PREDICTED   02 AUG-04 AUG  200/195/190
90 DAY MEAN        01 AUG 163
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 JUL  021/021
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 AUG  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 AUG-04 AUG  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 AUG-04 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01