:Product: 19990802RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 214 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON
THE NW LIMB PRODUCED A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD YESTERDAY AROUND 01/1950Z. NO MAJOR EVENTS WERE
NOTICED AS A RESULT OF THIS ACTIVITY. THE LARGEST EVENT FROM THIS
PERIOD WAS A M1 FLARE AT 02/0027Z ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II SWEPT
FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED OF 450 KM/S. THIS FLARE WAS OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED. REGION 8651 (N25W04) PRODUCED A C3/SF AT 02/2103Z WITH
A TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED OF 700 KM/S. THERE WERE
TWO MORE TYPE II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURSTS DURING THE PERIOD THAT WERE
NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED, ONE BETWEEN 02/0541-0546Z WITH A SPEED OF
500 KM/S AND ANOTHER BETWEEN 02/0959-1006Z WITH A SPEED OF 600 KM/S.
REGIONS 8651 AND 8645 (S25W44) CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THEIR BETA-GAMMA
MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION AND HAVE PRODUCED THE MAJORITY OF C-CLASS
FLARES DURING THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ON THE THIRD DAY. THIS ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO
CME EVENTS FROM 31 JULY THROUGH TODAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 AUG 213
PREDICTED   03 AUG-05 AUG  195/190/185
90 DAY MEAN        02 AUG 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 AUG  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 AUG  012/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 AUG-05 AUG  010/007-010/015-010/025
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 AUG-05 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/30
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05