:Product: 19990803RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
:::::::::: CORRECTED COPY ::::::::::
SDF NUMBER 215 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 8647 (S18W63) PRODUCED
AN X1/1B EVENT AT 02/2125Z THIS EVENT WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A TYPE II
SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WITH A SPEED OF 646 KM/S, AND A 570 SFU BURST
AT 10CM. THIS REGION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AN INCREASED SPOT COUNT AND COMPLEX MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION. AN
OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 EVENT OCCURRED AT 03/1955Z. REGION 8651
(N26W18) IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK WITH A WHITE
LIGHT AREA OF AROUND 1080 MILLIONTHS. THIS REGION AND REGION 8645
(S25W55) CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES. TWO NEW REGIONS
WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS 8658 (S25W13) AND 8659 (S23E22).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS
EVENT FROM REGIONS 8645, 8647, AND 8651.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ON DAY TWO.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
CLASS M    80/80/80
CLASS X    15/15/15
PROTON     10/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 AUG 211
PREDICTED   04 AUG-06 AUG  200/195/190
90 DAY MEAN        03 AUG 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 AUG  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 AUG  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 AUG-06 AUG  010/012-015/025-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 AUG-06 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01