:Product: 19990805RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 217 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8645 (S28W78) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 05/1623Z ASSOCIATED WITH
MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO EMISSION. REGION 8647 (S19W87) PRODUCED
ISOLATED SUBFLARES AND DISPLAYED NEAR CONTINUOUS SURGING AS IT BEGAN
CROSSING THE WEST LIMB. REGION 8651 (N26W44) WAS STABLE AS IT
CONTINUED A GRADUAL DECLINE IN SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NEW
REGION 8661 (S14E01) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE WITH A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGIONS 8645
AND 8647 COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES AS THEY DEPART THE
VISIBLE DISK EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
CLASS M    70/50/40
CLASS X    20/15/10
PROTON     10/10/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 AUG 177
PREDICTED   06 AUG-08 AUG  170/165/160
90 DAY MEAN        05 AUG 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 AUG  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 AUG  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 AUG-08 AUG  010/010-008/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 AUG-08 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01