:Product: 19990806RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
*************CORRECTED COPY****************************
SDF NUMBER 218 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION 8645
(S28W92) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 06/1636Z WHILE CROSSING THE SOUTHWEST
LIMB. A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP (EST. SHOCK VELOCITY 900 KM/SEC) WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE. TWO M1 X-RAY BURSTS WERE DETECTED AT
05/2224Z AND 05/2239Z. SPACE-BASED IMAGES INDICATED THAT REGION 8645
WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE EVENTS AS WELL. REGION 8651 (N26W57)
CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE, BUT REMAINED A MODERATE-SIZED F-TYPE
GROUP WITH A SLIGHT MIXING OF POLARITIES. IT PRODUCED A SINGLE
SUBFLARE LATE IN THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8662 (S16E60) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS WITH A DECREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE FROM BEYOND THE
SOUTHWEST LIMB DURING THE FIRST DAY. REGION 8651 MAY PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. ACTIVE LEVELS
OCCURRED DURING  06/1500 - 1800Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 AUG-09 AUG
CLASS M    50/40/40
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 AUG 170
PREDICTED   07 AUG-09 AUG  160/155/145
90 DAY MEAN        06 AUG 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES

OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 AUG  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 AUG  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 AUG-09 AUG  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 AUG-09 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
PLAIN
CORRECTED TWO M1 X-RAY BURSTS TO READ 05/2224Z AND 05/2239Z