:Product: 19990808RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 220 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 08 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  07/2100Z
TO 08/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
M1 X-RAY BURST OCCURRED AT 07/2105Z. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION
OBSERVED OFF THE SW LIMB AT THE SAME TIME AS THE M1 EVENT SUGGEST
EITHER OLD REGION 8645 (S28, L=239), OR REGION 8647 (S19, L=247) AS
THE LIKELY SOURCE REGION. REGION 8662 (S16E35) PRODUCED SEVERAL
MINOR C-CLASS SUBFLARES AND CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SLOW GROWTH. A
C3/SF WITH A SMALL ERUPTIVE FILAMENT AND MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS
OCCURRED IN REGION 8657 (S31W09) AT 07/2318Z. THE COMPLEX REGION
8651 (N26W82) IS MAKING A RELATIVELY QUIET TRANSIT AROUND THE WEST
LIMB. NEW REGION 8664 (N23E15) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING GROUPS
WERE MOSTLY QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FROM REGION 8657
AND 8662 WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT. AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGIONS ON OR AROUND THE WEST LIMB IS STILL
POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT HOVERED CLOSE TO HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 09 AUG-11 AUG
CLASS M    25/20/15
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           08 AUG 138
PREDICTED   09 AUG-11 AUG  135/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        08 AUG 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 AUG  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 AUG  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 AUG-11 AUG  008/008-008/008-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 09 AUG-11 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01