:Product: 19990809RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 221 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD
WAS A C4/1F LONG DURATION EVENT FROM REGION 8657 (S30W22) AT
09/0258Z. A FAINT HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS
EVENT. REGION 8662 (S16E21), THE LARGEST REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK,
DOUBLED IN SIZE, NOW AN E-TYPE REGION MEASURING OVER 230 MILLIONTHS
OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT FLUCTUATIONS AND MINOR SUBFLARES WERE
OBSERVED IN THIS REGION. THE PERIOD ENDED WITH AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED LONG DURATION C2 X-RAY ENHANCEMENT. REMAINING REGIONS
WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AT LOW LEVELS. REGIONS 8657 AND 8662 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD BZ DOMINATED MOST OF THE PERIOD, CAUSING
ACTIVE CONDITIONS DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 AUG 138
PREDICTED   10 AUG-12 AUG  135/135/135
90 DAY MEAN        09 AUG 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 AUG  007/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 AUG  013/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 AUG-12 AUG  008/015-008/008-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 AUG-12 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01