:Product: 19990811RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 223 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8662 (S14E11) PRODUCED A
C1/SF AT 10/2208Z. THIS REGION APPEARS TO HAVE STABILIZED, PRODUCING
ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 8665
(S26E66) WAS NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW. REGION 8662 IS THE ONLY REGION LIKELY TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES
AND HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
CLASS M    10/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 AUG 128
PREDICTED   12 AUG-14 AUG  130/135/140
90 DAY MEAN        11 AUG 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 AUG  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 AUG  007/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 AUG-14 AUG  005/007-005/007-005/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 AUG-14 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01