:Product: 19990812RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 224 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS
EVENTS OCCURRED. A LONG-DURATION C1 AT 11/2229UT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE ON THE WEST LIMB NEAR NW28. REGION 8662
(S16W19) IS THE MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE DISK AS A DECAYING E-TYPE
GROUP. THIS REGION HAS PRODUCED ONLY MINOR FLARES SINCE YESTERDAY.
NEW REGIONS NUMBERED INCLUDE 8666 (N14W59) AND 8667 (N23E69).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8662 AND 8667.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 AUG 123
PREDICTED   13 AUG-15 AUG  122/124/126
90 DAY MEAN        12 AUG 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 AUG  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 AUG  008/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 AUG-15 AUG  008/008-008/006-008/006
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 AUG-15 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01