:Product: 19990813RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 225 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8662 (S16W33) PRODUCED
SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C4/SF AT
13/1559UT. DECAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE TRAILER SUNSPOTS, IS
CONTINUING. NEW REGION 8668 (N21E75) IS ROTATING AROUND THE EAST
LIMB.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED IN REGION 8662. A LOW-LEVEL
M-CLASS FLARE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. A SINGLE ACTIVE
PERIOD OCCURRED FROM 13/0300-0600UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 AUG 127
PREDICTED   14 AUG-16 AUG  128/130/132
90 DAY MEAN        13 AUG 163
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 AUG  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 AUG-16 AUG  010/010-010/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 AUG-16 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01