:Product: 19990814RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 226 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8668 (N22E67) PRODUCED
THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PAST DAY, A C7/1F AT 14/1210UT. REGION 8662
(S16W46) ALSO PRODUCED C-CLASS ACTIVITY. NEITHER SUNSPOT REGION IS
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPLEX. NEW REGION 8669 (S21E39) EMERGED ON THE DISK.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE, PRINCIPALLY IN
REGIONS 8662 AND 8668. A LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE IN
THESE REGIONS AS WELL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 AUG 128
PREDICTED   15 AUG-17 AUG  130/132/134
90 DAY MEAN        14 AUG 163
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  007/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  008/007-008/007-008/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 AUG-17 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05