:Product: 19990815RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 227 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 15 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  14/2100Z
TO 15/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8662 (S15W59) CONTINUES
TO DECAY AND PRODUCED THE LARGEST FLARE SINCE YESTERDAY, A C4/1N AT
15/0123UT. REGION 8668 (N22E54) PRODUCED A FEW SUBFLARES BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. NEITHER REGION IS MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX. NEW REGIONS
8670 (S12W23) AND 8671 (S09W13) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN REGIONS 8662 AND 8668.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOLAR WIND SPEED AND IMF INTENSITY AND
VARIABILITY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           15 AUG 131
PREDICTED   16 AUG-18 AUG  132/134/136
90 DAY MEAN        15 AUG 163
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 AUG  005/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 AUG  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 AUG-18 AUG  015/012-015/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 16 AUG-18 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01