:Product: 19990816RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 228 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 8668 (N23E40) PRODUCED
A COUPLE MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS  AT 16/0034Z AND 16/2029Z.  THE
REGION DISPLAYED LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY.  NO NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS EVENTS ARE MOST PROBABLE FROM REGION 8668.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS.  SOLAR
WIND VELOCITIES STARTED TO INCREASE AROUND 16/0400Z AND REACHED OVER
700 KM/S.  DENSITY DECREASED AT THE SAME TIME INDICATING A POSSIBLE
HIGH STREAM CORONAL HOLE IMPACTING THE EARTH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO
DAYS, BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE THIRD DAY.  THIS
INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS BASED ON THE POSSIBLE CONTINUATION
OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
SUN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 AUG 131
PREDICTED   17 AUG-19 AUG  135/138/145
90 DAY MEAN        16 AUG 163
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 AUG  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 AUG  025/035
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 AUG-19 AUG  015/012-015/017-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 AUG-19 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/35
MINOR STORM           25/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01