:Product: 19990822RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 234 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. THIS WAS DUE TO AN M5.9/1N
EVENT FROM REGION 8674 (S25E48) AT 21/2213UT. REGION 8674 WAS THE
SOURCE OF ALMOST ALL OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY THIS PERIOD INCLUDING
SEVERAL C-CLASS EVENTS AND A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP (400 KM/S) AT
22/1413UT. REGION 8668 (N23W36) PRODUCED A SINGLE OPTICAL SUBFLARE
AT 22/1123UT.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG
CLASS M    70/70/70
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 AUG 173
PREDICTED   23 AUG-25 AUG  180/185/190
90 DAY MEAN        22 AUG 163
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 AUG  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 AUG  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 AUG-25 AUG  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 AUG-25 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01