:Product: 19990824RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 236 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  REGION 8674 (S26E24) PRODUCED
A C5/1F EVENT AT 24/0623Z AND A C2/1F AT 24/1716Z.  SEVERAL OTHER
MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.  NEW
REGIONS 8675 (N21E75) AND 8676 (N26E72) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGION 8674 APPEARS THE MOST CAPABLE FOR PRODUCING AN
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
WITH ONE PERIOD OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FROM 24/1200-1500Z.  SINCE
THERE IS NO READILY DISCERNABLE SINGLE SOURCE, SEVERAL FACTORS MAY
HAVE COMBINED TO CAUSE THE INCREASED LEVEL IN GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD, BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 AUG-27 AUG
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 AUG 202
PREDICTED   25 AUG-27 AUG  208/215/220
90 DAY MEAN        24 AUG 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 AUG  022/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 AUG  024/033
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 AUG-27 AUG  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 AUG-27 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01