:Product: 19990825RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 237 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE.  REGION 8674 (S24E11)
PRODUCED AN M3/1N EVENT AT 25/0136Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP
AND A 310 SFU 10CM RADIO BURST.  THE TYPE II HAD AN ESTIMATED SPEED
OF 500 KM/S.  REGION 8674 ALSO PRODUCED A C6/SF AT 25/1504Z.
SEVERAL OTHER OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED
DURING THE PERIOD.  REGION 8676 (N26E61) DISPLAYED SLIGHT GROWTH
SINCE YESTERDAY.  NEW REGIONS 8677 (N07E71) AND REGION 8678 (N16W40)
WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGION 8674 IS STILL THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE AN
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 AUG-28 AUG
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 AUG 208
PREDICTED   26 AUG-28 AUG  215/220/220
90 DAY MEAN        25 AUG 165
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 AUG  018/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 AUG  008/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 AUG-28 AUG  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 AUG-28 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/30
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01