:Product: 19990826RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Aug 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 238 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 AUG 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH ONLY C-CLASS EVENTS DURING
THE PERIOD.  THE STRONGEST C-CLASS EVENT WAS AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C7 AT 26/0705Z.  REGION 8674 (S25W03) HAD SIGNIFICANT
GROWTH IN THE NUMBER OF SPOTS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.  REGIONS 8675
(N18E53) AND 8677 (N04E60) BOTH DISPLAYED MINOR GROWTH.  NEW REGION
8679 (S34E58) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.  REGION 8673 (S19W08) OR 8674 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 AUG-29 AUG
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 AUG 222
PREDICTED   27 AUG-29 AUG  220/215/215
90 DAY MEAN        26 AUG 166
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 AUG  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 AUG  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 AUG-29 AUG  010/012-010/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 AUG-29 AUG
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01