:Product: 19990903RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 246 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW WITH ONLY LOW LEVEL C-CLASS
X-RAY EVENTS OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LASCO SPACECRAFT
OBSERVED A SERIES OF PARTIAL HALO CME EVENTS FROM YESTERDAY THROUGH
EARLY TODAY. THE FIRST EVENT BEGAN AT 02/1530Z OFF THE SE LIMB WITH
INDICATIONS OF IT BEING A BACKSIDE EVENT, THE SECOND BEGAN AT
02/1630Z OVER THE SOUTH POLE WITH NO OBVIOUS SOURCE, AND THE THIRD
WAS OBSERVED AT 03/0006Z. THE EIT IMAGES INDICATED THE SOURCE OF
THIS EVENT AS REGION 8679 (S36W41). A TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS
OBSERVED AT 03/0001Z WITH NO OPTICAL OR X-RAY ASSOCIATED. A NEW
REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 8688 (S24E14).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED M-CLASS X-RAY FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DURING
THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE THIRD DAY MAY EXPERIENCE ACTIVE TO
NEAR-STORM LEVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO CME ACTIVITY OF THE PAST TWO
DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 SEP 139
PREDICTED   04 SEP-06 SEP  135/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        03 SEP 168
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 SEP  011/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 SEP  020/017
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 SEP-06 SEP  010/012-010/010-020/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 SEP-06 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/30
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10