:Product: 19990904RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 247 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE C1 X-RAY EVENT, WITH
NO ASSOCIATED OPTICAL FLARE, WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE INTERVAL. IT
OCCURRED AT 0507Z. THE SEVEN SPOTTED REGIONS, ALL IN THE WESTERN
HEMISPHERE, WERE STABLE OR DECLINING. REGIONS 8682 (N17W14) AND 8687
(N11W33) WERE THE BRIGHTEST.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE ENERGETIC ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT PASSED THE HIGH LEVEL NEAR MIDWAY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CORONAL
TRANSIENTS MAY BRING ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS FOR 06
SEPTEMBER, WITH A CALMING TREND BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 SEP-07 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 SEP 131
PREDICTED   05 SEP-07 SEP  130/125/125
90 DAY MEAN        04 SEP 168
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 SEP  014/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 SEP  013/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 SEP-07 SEP  010/010-020/015-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 SEP-07 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/50/40
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01