:Product: 19990905RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 248 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. REGION 8681 (N21 ON WEST
LIMB) PRODUCED TODAY'S ONLY C-CLASS EVENT, A C2/SF AT 0539Z. NEW
REGION 8689 (N18W05) EMERGED ON THE DISK TODAY AND WAS GROWING
STEADILY. REGION 8682 (N18W28) HAS SOME MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT
WAS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AS A RESPONSE TO RECENT CORONAL
MASS EJECTION EVENTS. ENHANCED ACTIVITY MAY LINGER PARTWAY INTO THE
SECOND DAY, BUT PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 SEP 122
PREDICTED   06 SEP-08 SEP  120/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        05 SEP 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 SEP  011/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 SEP  008/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 SEP-08 SEP  020/015-015/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 SEP-08 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/05
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/15
MINOR STORM           20/15/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01