:Product: 19990906RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 249 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN VERY LOW. TODAY'S LARGEST FLARE
WAS A B6/SF AT 1213UT FROM REGION 8682 (N17W41). THIS REGION APPEARS
TO BE SLOWLY DECAYING. REGION 8687 (N10W60) APPEARED TO BE GROWING
SLOWLY TODAY BUT WAS QUIET AND STABLE. A NEW REGION 8690 (N13E73)
ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS A D-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE
ENERGETIC ELECTRONS AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE ATTAINED HIGH FLUX
LEVELS TODAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 SEP-09 SEP
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 SEP 119
PREDICTED   07 SEP-09 SEP  115/112/112
90 DAY MEAN        06 SEP 167
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 SEP  004/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 SEP  005/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 SEP-09 SEP  010/012-005/012-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 SEP-09 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05