:Product: 19990921RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 264 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C9/SF FLARE FROM REGION 8706
(N22E54) WAS THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE DAY. JUST PRIOR TO THAT, A C5
X-RAY EVENT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE FROM REGION
8699 (N19W90). A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP OCCURRED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ERUPTION. ALL DISK REGIONS WERE EITHER STABLE OR DECLINING DURING
THE INTERVAL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS MIDWAY
THROUGH THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 SEP 147
PREDICTED   22 SEP-24 SEP  145/145/140
90 DAY MEAN        21 SEP 164
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 SEP  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 SEP  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 SEP-24 SEP  010/008-010/010-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 SEP-24 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01