:Product: 19990926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 269 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 26 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  25/2100Z
TO 26/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A SINGLE C-CLASS EVENT,
AN UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY FLARE AT 26/0033UT. ACTIVITY FOR THE REST
OF THE PERIOD WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH A PERIOD OF
MINOR STORMING FROM 26/15-1800UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           26 SEP 123
PREDICTED   27 SEP-29 SEP  120/120/115
90 DAY MEAN        26 SEP 160
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 SEP  001/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 SEP  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 SEP-29 SEP  015/020-010/012-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 27 SEP-29 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01