:Product: 19990927RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 270 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW DUE TO A SINGLE C-CLASS EVENT.
THIS WAS A C2/SF FROM REGION 8704 (S12W60) AT 27/0912UT. ACTIVITY
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD WAS VERY LOW.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. THESE
CONDITIONS WERE THE RESULT OF A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORM
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AT HIGH LATITUDES, FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS  WOULD BE THE RESULT OF THE HIGH
SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM MENTIONED ABOVE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DECREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON THE SECOND DAY AND QUIET TO
UNSETTLED ON THE THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 SEP 124
PREDICTED   28 SEP-30 SEP  120/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        27 SEP 159
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 SEP  013/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 SEP  035/040
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 SEP-30 SEP  025/040-015/018-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 SEP-30 SEP
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/25/15
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01