:Product: 19990928RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 271 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED:
8711 (N24W31).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DUE TO A HIGH SPEED
CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS AT 28/1330UT AND REMAINED
AT HIGH LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 SEP-01 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 SEP 126
PREDICTED   29 SEP-01 OCT  125/120/120
90 DAY MEAN        28 SEP 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 SEP  031/037
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 SEP  025/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 SEP-01 OCT  015/012-010/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 SEP-01 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01