:Product: 19990929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 272 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONE MINOR C-CLASS EVENT
OCCURRED AT 29/1605Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.  NEW REGIONS 8712
(S13W06), 8713 (S13E62), AND 8714 (N11E72) WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DUE
TO A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM. THE  MINOR STORM CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED DURING ONE PERIOD FROM 29/0600 - 0900Z.  THE GREATER
THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.  ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 SEP 125
PREDICTED   30 SEP-02 OCT  125/120/122
90 DAY MEAN        29 SEP 158
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 SEP  020/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 SEP  020/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 SEP-02 OCT  012/015-010/015-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 SEP-02 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01