:Product: 19990930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 273 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 SEP 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  ONE MINOR C-CLASS EVENT
OCCURRED AT 30/0507Z WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION.  NEW REGION 8715
(N11E42) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS DUE
TO A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM IMPACTING THE EARTH.  THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT DROPPED
BELOW HIGH LEVELS BUT REMAINED ENHANCED DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE.  ISOLATED MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 OCT-03 OCT
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 SEP 125
PREDICTED   01 OCT-03 OCT  122/125/125
90 DAY MEAN        30 SEP 157
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 SEP  022/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 SEP  024/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 OCT-03 OCT  014/020-010/015-008/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 OCT-03 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           15/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/20/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01