:Product: 19991001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 274 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. EIGHT C-CLASS EVENTS WERE
RECORDED, THE LARGEST BEING A C7 FLARE AT 01/0017UT. ALL OF THE
C-CLASS FLARES WERE UNCORRELATED AND PROBABLY ORIGINATED FROM OVER
THE EAST LIMB. GROUND BASED OBSERVATORIES AND SPACECRAFT DATA SHOW
TWO DISTINCT ACTIVE AREAS ON THE EAST LIMB THAT SHOULD ROTATE ONTO
THE FACE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A TYPE II SWEEP (600 KM/S) OCCURRED AT
01/0816UT IN CONJUNCTION WITH A C3 X-RAY FLARE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT MODERATE TO HIGH
LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE THE
POSSIBLE GEOEFFECTIVE POSITION OF TWO CORONAL HOLES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 OCT-04 OCT
CLASS M    10/15/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 OCT 122
PREDICTED   02 OCT-04 OCT  125/130/130
90 DAY MEAN        01 OCT 156
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 SEP  014/029
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 OCT  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 OCT-04 OCT  020/025-015/020-015/020
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 OCT-04 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/40/40
MINOR STORM           25/20/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/50/50
MINOR STORM           30/25/25
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01