:Product: 19991002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 275 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW.  NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED WITH NO OPTICAL CORRELATION EXCEPT WITH A C3/SF
OBSERVED AT 02/1828Z FROM REGION 8716 (N21E70).  THE LARGEST EVENT
WAS  A C6 AT 02/0156Z.  SURGING WAS OBSERVED FROM THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST LIMB AS TWO ACTIVE REGIONS ARE STARTING TO ROTATE ONTO THE
DISK.  NEW REGION 8716 (N21E70) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS X-RAY EVENT MOST LIKELY OCCURRING
FROM ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE REGIONS NEAR THE EAST LIMB.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.  THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ALTERNATED BETWEEN MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD
THEN BECOMING MORE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.  ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE HIGHER LATITUDES DURING THE FIRST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 OCT-05 OCT
CLASS M    10/10/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 OCT 126
PREDICTED   03 OCT-05 OCT  130/135/135
90 DAY MEAN        02 OCT 155
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 OCT  006/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 OCT  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 OCT-05 OCT  010/015-008/015-008/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 OCT-05 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/30/25
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01