:Product: 19991003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 276 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT A LOW LEVEL. REGION 8716
(N20E60) PRODUCED A LONG DURATION C3/SF AT 03/1545Z. SEVERAL REGIONS
RECENTLY ROTATED OVER THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST LIMBS. THE MOST
COMPLEX AREA APPEARS TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST WHERE REGIONS 8716 AND
NEW 8720 (N14E65) ARE LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. IN THE SOUTHEAST,
NEW REGIONS 8719 (S20E50) AND 8721 (S17E56) ALSO APPEARED TO BE
ALMOST ABUTTED. HOWEVER, NO CURRENT DISK REGIONS SHOWED MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DYNAMICS AND NO ONE REGION SHOWED SIGNIFICANT MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
IS MILDLY POSSIBLE FROM THE REGION 8716/8720 COMPLEX.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DROPPED INTO THE 400 KM/S RANGE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES REACHED
HIGH LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 OCT-06 OCT
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 OCT 135
PREDICTED   04 OCT-06 OCT  138/140/142
90 DAY MEAN        03 OCT 155
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 OCT  009/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 OCT  007/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 OCT-06 OCT  008/015-008/012-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 OCT-06 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05