:Product: 19991004RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 277 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT A LOW LEVEL. THE LARGEST
EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A MODERATE DURATION C5/SF FROM REGION 8720
(N13E54) AT 04/0816Z. SMALL SUBFLARES WERE ALSO OBSERVED FROM
REGIONS 8719 (S22E37) AND 8721 (S18E46). SEVERAL FILAMENTS AROUND
N35 AND SPANNING CENTRAL MERIDIAN FADED SLOWLY BEGINNING AT
23/2324Z. A SMALL H CLASS SPOT ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB AND WAS
NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8723 (N18E76).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE AT A
PREDOMINANTLY LOW LEVEL. ISOLATED SMALL M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THE ACTIVE REGION COMPLEX 8719/8721 AND TO A LESSER DEGREE FROM
THE 8716 (N19E47)/8720 COMPLEX.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT SEVERAL SITES DURING THE
PERIOD. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY INCREASED SLOWLY DURING THE PERIOD TO
NEAR 450 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. TWO CORONAL HOLES, WHICH ENLARGED SINCE LAST ROTATION, ARE
MOVING INTO FAVORABLE POSITION FOR THEIR HIGH SPEED STREAMS TO
IMPACT THE EARTH.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 OCT 144
PREDICTED   05 OCT-07 OCT  145/147/150
90 DAY MEAN        04 OCT 155
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 OCT  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 OCT  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 OCT-07 OCT  012/020-012/015-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 OCT-07 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05