:Product: 19991005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 278 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E43)
PRODUCED A C2/SF AT 05/0551Z. THE DISK IS CHARACTERIZED BY MANY
SMALL MOSTLY BIPOLAR AND MOSTLY STABLE REGIONS. ONLY REGION 8722
(N15E09) EXHIBITED MODERATE GROWTH BUT REMAINED A MINOR REGION. A
SMALL H CLASS SPOT ROTATED AROUND THE LIMB NEAR S24E68 AND WAS
NUMBERED AS REGION 8725.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
PREDOMINANTLY LOW. THERE IS A SMALL AND DECREASING POSSIBILITY OF A
LOW LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. SOLAR
WIND VELOCITY CONTINUED TO SLOWLY INCREASE AND AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WAS OVER 550 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
ISOLATED MINOR STORMING IS POSSIBLE. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BELIEVED TO
BE RELATED TO AN EXTENDED CORONAL HOLE IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF
THE SUN. DUE TO THE WIDTH OF THIS FEATURE, DISTURBED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
CLASS M    15/15/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 OCT 146
PREDICTED   06 OCT-08 OCT  148/150/154
90 DAY MEAN        05 OCT 155
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 OCT  009/015
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 OCT  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 OCT-08 OCT  015/015-015/010-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 OCT-08 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/40
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05