:Product: 19991006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1999 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 279 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 OCT 1999
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED LOW. REGION 8720 (N13E29)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. SEVERAL
NEW SPOTS DEVELOPED IN THIS RE-EMERGING REGION. OTHER REGIONS WERE
PREDOMINANTLY STABLE. DURING THE PERIOD, A MODERATELY LARGE REGION
OF ENHANCED X-RAY EMISSION BECAME VISIBLE BETWEEN NE20-30 INDICATING
THE IMMINENT ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER SUNSPOT REGION TO THE VISIBLE DISK.
A LARGE CORONAL MASS EJECTION CENTERED NEAR SE45 BEGAN NEAR
06/0000Z. THE PROPAGATION VELOCITY WAS VERY SLOW AND TRAJECTORY WAS
RADIAL.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY
LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. C-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE DISK.  THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A LOW
LEVEL M-CLASS EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. THE NEW REGION OVER THE
NORTHEAST LIMB MAY ELEVATE ACTIVITY LEVELS SLIGHTLY BUT IT IS
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME TO ASSESS ITS POTENTIAL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DROPPED BELOW 500 KM/S DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. A
CORONAL HOLE RELATED HIGH SPEED STREAM IS EXPECTED TO RESUME DURING
THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 OCT 134
PREDICTED   07 OCT-09 OCT  138/142/146
90 DAY MEAN        06 OCT 154
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 OCT  011/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 OCT  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 OCT-09 OCT  012/012-012/010-015/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 OCT-09 OCT
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05